Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian approach), all sources of uncertainty can be included in a logically consistent way. Practical formulae for the first moments of the probability distribution are derived up to second-order approximations.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures. This paper and related work are also available at http://www-zeus.roma1.infn.it/~agostini/prob+stat.htm

Thermal and Non-Thermal Physical Methods for Improving Polyphenol Extraction in Red Winemaking

Maceration-fermentation is a critical stage in the elaboration of high-quality red wine. During this stage, the solid parts of the grape berries remain in contact with the fermenting must in order to extract polyphenols mainly located in the grape skin cells. Extracted polyphenols have a considerable impact on sensory properties (color, flavor, astringency, and bitterness) and on the aging behavior of red wine. In order to obtain wines with a sufficient proportion of those compounds, long maceration times are required. The presence of the solid parts of the grapes during red wine fermentation involves several problems for the wineries such as production capacity reduction, higher energy consumption for controlling the fermentation temperature and labor and energy consumption for periodically pump the grape must over the skin mass. Physical techniques based on heating such as thermovinification and flash expansion are currently being applied in wineries to improve the extraction of polyphenols and to reduce maceration time. However, these techniques present a series of problems derived from the heating of the grapes that affect wine quality. A series of recent studies have demonstrated that non-thermal innovative technologies such as pulsed electric fields (PEF) and ultrasound may represent effective alternatives to heating for assisting polyphenol extraction. In terms of general product quality and energetic requirements, this review compares these thermal and non-thermal physical technologies that aim to reduce maceration time

YREE determination in seawater. Standardization and validation of a new method based on preconcentration techniques

The most interesting attraction of using rare-earth elements and yttrium (YREE) to address geochemical and marine chemical problems consists of their chemical coherence as group of trace elements. These characters allow YREE compositions of rocks and minerals to be extensively used in studies of provenance, petrogenesis and chemical evolution of the geological materials (1). Similarly, YREE compositions in the hydrosphere were used in studies of coagulation, particle-solution reactions and oceanic circulation of water masses (2-4). Unfortunately, very low concentrations of YREE (ng l-1 or sub-ng l-1) associated to high ionic strength of seawater always represented the main difficulty to analyse dissolved YREE in marine environment. The first geochemical investigations of YREE contents in seawater were carried out using neutron activation and isotope dilution mass spectrometry that were almost entirely replaced by inductively coupled plasma supplemented by mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) in recent years. This technique offers many advantages including simultaneous analysis of all the elements of series and their quantitative determination with detection limits of the order of ng l-1 if associated to preconcentration techniques (5). To perform ultra-trace YREE analyses in seawater, we developed a preconcentration method based on CHELEX-100 iminodiacetate resin followed by ICP-MS determination (Ref). In this study the YREE behaviour was quantitatively investigated during interactions with ion chelating resin and estimation of composed measurement uncertainty associated to measurements was evaluated with a rigorous metrological approach based on method validation and quality control of YREE data. These goals were achieved using synthetic seawater where YREE had concentrations as occurring in natural seawater samples. Under these conditions good recovery were obtained along the YREE series, ranging from 75%-85% and 90%-100% for heavy REE and Y and light REE, respectively. Composed measurement uncertainty was expressed in terms of precision, recovery uncertainties, reference material uncertainty and instrumental calibration uncertainty. The obtained results were critically discussed on the basis of the different contributions and confirm the quadrupole ICP-MS technique as highly sensitive to determine very low YREE concentrations. REFERENCES 1. S. R. Taylor, S.M. McLennan, The Continental Crust: its Composition and Evolution. Blackwell Scientific Publications, Oxford, 1985). 2. G.J. Piepgras, G.J. Wasserburg, Science 217 (1982) 207. 3. J. Zhang, Y. Nozaki, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60 (1996) 4631. 4. R.H. Byrne, E. Sholkovitz, In: Gschneidner, J.K.A., Eyring, (Eds.), Handbook on the Physics and Chemistry of Rare Earths. Elsevier, New York, (1996) 498-593. 5. P. M\uf6ller, P. Dulski P., J. Luck, Spectrochim. Acta, 47B, 1379

Splenomegaly impacts prognosis in essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera: A single center study

Splenomegaly is one of the major clinical manifestations of primary myelofibrosis and is common also in other chronic Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms, causing symptoms and signs and affecting quality of life of patients diagnosed with these diseases. We aimed to study the impact that such alteration has on thrombotic risk and on the survival of patients with essential thrombocythemia and patients with Polycythemia Vera (PV). We studied the relationship between splenomegaly (and its grade), thrombosis and survival in 238 patients with et and 165 patients with PV followed at our center between January 1997 and May 2019

Release of mannoproteins during Saccharomyces cerevisiae autolysis induced by pulsed electric field

The potential of the application of pulsed electric fields (PEF) to induce accelerate autolysis of a commercial strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae for winemaking use was evaluated. The influence of PEF treatments of different intensity (5–25 kV/cm for 30–240 µs) on cell viability, cytoplasmic membrane permeabilization and release of mannoproteins and compounds absorbing at 260 and 280 nm has been investigated. After 8 days of incubation at 25¿C the Abs600 of the suspension containing the control cells was kept constant while the Abs600 of the suspension containing the cells treated by PEF decreased. The measurement of the absorbance at 260 and 280 nm revealed no release of UV absorbing material from untreated cells after 8 days of incubation but the amount of UV absorbing material released drastically increased in the samples that contained cells treated by PEF after the same storage period. After 18 days of storage the amount of mannoproteins released from the untreated cell was negligible. Conversely, mannoprotein concentration increased linearly for the samples containing cells of S. cerevisiae treated by PEF. After 18 days of incubation the concentration of mannoproteins in the supernatant increased 4.2 times for the samples containing cells treated by PEF at 15 and 25 kV/cm for 45 and 150 µs. Results obtained in this study indicates that PEF could be used in winemaking to accelerate the sur lie aging or to obtain mannoproteins from yeast cultures

UV-Heat Treatments for the Control of Foodborne Microbial Pathogens in Chicken Broth

This investigation established the process criteria for using UV-C light and mild heat (UV-H treatment) to inactivate 5-Log10 cycles (performance criterion) of common foodborne pathogen populations, Escherichia coli, Salmonella Typhimurium, Listeria monocytogenes, and Staphylococcus aureus, when inoculated in chicken broth. To define the target microorganism and the proper UV-H treatment conditions (including UV dose, treatment time, and temperature) that would achieve the stated performance criterion, mathematical equations based on Geeraerd''s model were developed for each microorganism. For the sake of comparison, inactivation equations for heat treatments were also performed on the same chicken broth and for the same microorganisms. L. monocytogenes was the most UV-H resistant microorganism at all temperatures, requiring a UV dose between 6.10 J/mL (5.6 min) and 2.26 J/mL (2.09 min) to achieve 5-Log10 reductions. In comparison with UV treatments at room temperatures, the combination of UV and mild heat allowed both the UV dose and treatment time to be reduced by 30% and 63% at 55°C and 60°C, respectively. Compared to heat treatments, the UV-H process reduced the heating time for 5-Log10 reductions of all the investigated microorganisms in chicken broth from 20-fold to 2-fold when the operating temperature varied from 53 to 60°C

Seasonal and diel changes in the structure of a crustacean decapod assemblage associated to a shallow Cymodocea nodosa meadow in northern Tunisia (Mediterranean Sea). An overview of the Mediterranean decapod taxocoenoses.

A study on the decapod assemblage inhabiting a shallow meadow of Cymodocea nodosa from the bay of La Goulette (Tunisia) was carried from February 2009 to February 2010. Monthly samples (with replicates) were taken in the morning and at night, with a small Agassiz trawl. In total 11699 specimens belonging to 41 species were caught. Significant day-night and seasonal changes are mainly related to movements (feeding) and recruitments. Higher abundance and richness were reported at night. Analyses rendered no significant relationships between the plant phenology and abundances and richness; neither between the total abundance and temperature, but significant correlations with a time lag of 3 - 4 months between these factors exist, which could be related with hatching and larval development period. The nocturnal and diurnal values in the diversity and equitability indexes are quite similar along the year (peaks in spring - early summer, minimum in autumn - early winter). This pattern is mainly due to the strong dominance of a few species, with maximum abundances during their recruitment events, whose seasonal and day-night changes have been determined. Besides, an overview of the decapods assemblage associated to this seagrass for the Mediterranean Sea has been carried out. The species can be divided into two groups (linked to the leaves and to the sediment). The differences in species composition between areas must be related to different sampling methodologies, feeding and reproductive strategies, but also to the layout and influence of the surrounding habitats

Study of ni/al-fe catalyst stability in the aqueous phase hydrogenolysis of glycerol

The present work studied the stability and reusability of Ni/Al-Fe catalyst in the aqueous phase hydrogenolysis of glycerol without external hydrogen addition. The catalyst based on 28 molar % of Ni with 3/1 molar ratio of Al/Fe was prepared through co-precipitation. This catalyst presented the best performance in our last study which compares several Ni/Al-Fe catalysts with different molar ratios of Al/Fe. To see the influence of the pressurized water on the physicochemical characteristics of Ni/Al-Fe catalyst, a test of up to 9 h has been carried out. Fresh and used catalysts were characterized by various techniques: X-ray Diffraction (XRD), N2-physisorption, field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) and STEM. Glycerol conversion and carbon yield to gases and liquids did not vary significantly when compared at 3 h and 9 h. Furthermore, the morphology of the catalyst remains stable after continuous recycling under severe hydrothermal conditions. The nickel rich phase of the catalyst, which was determined by XRD and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) techniques, showed a stable size after 9 h under reaction

Bayesian geostatistical modelling for mapping schistosomiasis transmission

Progress has been made in mapping and predicting the risk of schistosomiasis using Bayesian geostatistical inference. Applications primarily focused on risk profiling of prevalence rather than infection intensity, although the latter is particularly important for morbidity control. In this review, the underlying assumptions used in a study mapping Schistosoma mansoni infection intensity in East Africa are examined. We argue that the assumption of stationarity needs to be relaxed, and that the negative binomial assumption might result in misleading inference because of a high number of excess zeros (individuals without an infection). We developed a Bayesian geostatistical zero-inflated (ZI) regression model that assumes a non-stationary spatial process. Our model is validated with a high-quality georeferenced database from western Côte d'Ivoire, consisting of demographic, environmental, parasitological and socio-economic data. Nearly 40% of the 3818 participating schoolchildren were infected with S. mansoni, and the mean egg count among infected children was 162 eggs per gram of stool (EPG), ranging between 24 and 6768 EPG. Compared to a negative binomial and ZI Poisson and negative binomial models, the Bayesian non-stationary ZI negative binomial model showed a better fit to the data. We conclude that geostatistical ZI models produce more accurate maps of helminth infection intensity than the spatial negative binomial one